While Cinco de Mayo festivities bring celebration to tables across the United States—often accompanied by salsa and fresh tomato dishes—a new trade policy threatens to sour the mood. The U.S. government has announced plans to impose a nearly 21% duty on fresh tomatoes imported from Mexico beginning July 14, 2025, igniting fresh tensions between domestic growers, Mexican exporters, and the restaurants and retailers caught in the middle.
For now, avocados—and thus guacamole—have been spared from trade penalties. But tomatoes, a culinary cornerstone and staple ingredient in countless U.S. kitchens, may soon come with a higher price tag.
The Economics Behind the Tariff
At the heart of the proposed duty lies a familiar debate: supporting domestic agriculture versus maintaining low prices for consumers. Mexico currently supplies around 70% of the fresh tomatoes consumed in the U.S., a dramatic increase from just 30% two decades ago. Proponents of the tariff argue that this dominance has been achieved through unfair advantages and that U.S. growers are being squeezed out of the market.
“Unless we level the playing field, the U.S. fresh tomato industry is at serious risk,” says Robert Guenther, executive vice president of the Florida Tomato Exchange, a trade group backing the tariff. Florida and California remain America’s top producers of tomatoes, but most of California’s crop is processed into sauces or canned goods, leaving Florida to carry much of the load for fresh varieties.
Supporters like Guenther argue that Mexican growers benefit from significantly lower production costs—cheaper land, cheaper inputs, and particularly cheaper labor. Tomato farming in the U.S. is labor-intensive and largely depends on seasonal immigrant workers through the H-2A visa program, where average hourly wages exceeded $16 last year. In contrast, wages in Mexican tomato farms are estimated to be one-tenth that figure.
The Impact on Prices and Businesses
Critics of the new duty, however, warn of the ripple effect it will cause—higher prices for fresh tomatoes at the grocery store and increased costs for restaurants and food producers.
San Antonio-based company NatureSweet, which grows tomatoes both in the U.S. and Mexico, anticipates millions of dollars in monthly duty payments if the tariff proceeds. “We already operate efficiently,” says Skip Hulett, the company’s chief legal officer. “There’s only so much we can absorb. The rest will have to be passed on to consumers.”
Tim Richards, a professor at Arizona State University’s Morrison School of Agribusiness, estimates a retail price increase of about 10.5% on tomatoes if the tariffs take effect. That’s a significant hike for an ingredient found in everything from sandwiches to pasta sauces to pico de gallo.
For restaurant owners like Adrian Burciaga, co-owner of the upscale Mexican eatery Don Artemio in Fort Worth, Texas, the looming duty presents more than a financial challenge—it’s a cultural one. His kitchen uses up to 400 pounds of Mexican Roma tomatoes every week, favored for their rich flavor and consistency.
“To us, tomatoes aren’t just ingredients—they’re part of who we are,” Burciaga explains. “It’s like choosing a fine wine. If I want a good cabernet, I go to Napa. If I want a tomato that brings me back to my roots, I get it from Mexico.”
Burciaga currently pays $19 for a 25-pound crate of tomatoes. With the duty, that price could rise sharply, forcing menu price adjustments or substitutions—neither of which he welcomes. “We don’t want to compromise flavor,” he adds. “But we also need to stay in business.”
A History of Friction
The debate over Mexican tomato imports isn’t new. It dates back to the mid-1990s, soon after the implementation of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). In 1996, the U.S. Department of Commerce launched an investigation into allegations of Mexican growers “dumping” tomatoes at artificially low prices. The probe was suspended after both sides agreed on minimum pricing standards.
Since then, the agreement has been repeatedly reviewed and renegotiated. But in April, the U.S. Commerce Department withdrew from the most recent suspension agreement, citing a flood of complaints from domestic growers seeking stronger protections.
According to Guenther, the current system lacks effective enforcement. While Mexican exporters are supposed to honor minimum prices, shipments are often spot-checked, making it easy to skirt the rules. He also points to the broader structural differences that favor Mexican production—advantages that have little to do with pricing integrity and more to do with climate and geography.
Climate, Competition, and Culinary Expectations
NatureSweet’s Hulett acknowledges that it is indeed more cost-effective to grow tomatoes in Mexico—but not just because of labor. “Climate is one of the biggest factors,” he says. “In Mexico, we don’t need heating or cooling systems in our greenhouses. You can relocate industries, but you can’t relocate weather.”
Meanwhile, advocates for Mexican imports argue that consumer preferences are being ignored. Lance Jungmeyer, president of the Fresh Produce Association of the Americas, says the market has shifted toward specialty tomatoes that Mexico is better suited to produce—such as vine-ripened varieties that Florida doesn’t typically grow.
“Florida tomatoes are often picked green and ripened later in warehouses,” Jungmeyer notes. “Today’s consumers want better flavor, and Mexico delivers that.”
Guenther disagrees. “Put a Florida tomato up against a Mexican tomato in a blind taste test,” he says confidently. “You might be surprised.”
What’s Next?
As the July 14 deadline approaches, Mexico’s government has signaled a willingness to negotiate. But retaliation is on the table. President Claudia Sheinbaum has hinted at imposing duties on U.S. exports of chicken and pork legs if the tomato tariff proceeds—a potential escalation in a long-standing trade dispute.
For business owners like Burciaga, the uncertainty is the biggest challenge. “When you run a restaurant, you plan ahead,” he says. “We need stability to make good decisions. But with these tariffs, we’re constantly guessing. That’s not sustainable.”
Whether the looming tax will bring relief to U.S. farmers or burden everyday consumers remains to be seen. What is certain, though, is that the tomato—humble yet essential—is now at the center of a heated political and economic debate.
