Despite recent setbacks in climate science communication and concerns about the integrity of some institutions, the global effort to address climate change continues to press forward. Nowhere is this more visible than on the African continent, where collaboration between scientists and local communities is laying the foundation for adaptation and resilience in the face of increasingly extreme weather.
During recent field visits to Mozambique and Ghana, the sense of urgency was palpable. At the same time, so was the thirst for knowledge. From university classrooms to remote villages, people are eager to understand the risks that climate change brings—especially when it comes to rainfall patterns, water quality, and public health.
The Science Behind the Storms
Recent years have brought devastating floods to some regions and prolonged droughts to others. These seemingly contradictory events are not anomalies, but rather consequences of a rapidly warming world. As global temperatures rise, the atmosphere is able to hold more moisture, leading to more intense rainfall events. This relationship is described by the Clausius-Clapeyron equation, a fundamental principle of atmospheric physics.
However, there’s another factor at play: the uneven distribution of daily rainfall. Emerging research shows that rainfall is increasingly concentrated in smaller geographical areas. Satellite data, climate models, and reanalysis studies all support this trend. What it means in practice is that while some regions are inundated with rain, others are left parched. This shift poses a dual threat—flooding in one place, drought in another—across vast regions like sub-Saharan Africa.
Data-Driven Adaptation in Mozambique
In Maputo, Mozambique’s capital, scientists and students from eight southeastern African countries gathered for a CORDEX Flagship Pilot Study (FPS) workshop. The goal: to build regional capacity in climate analysis using open-source tools for empirical-statistical downscaling. This technique translates broad climate model outputs into localized forecasts, allowing researchers to estimate future changes in rainfall at community scale.
Participants worked with local rain gauge data to analyze CMIP6 climate model simulations, focusing on total annual precipitation. This kind of downscaled analysis is essential for planning infrastructure, agriculture, and water systems that are resilient to climate variability.
One of the workshop’s key takeaways was a simple yet effective method for estimating how often heavy rainfall—defined as more than 20 mm per day—can be expected. By using only two variables—the number of wet days per year and the average precipitation on those days—scientists can approximate the frequency of heavy rain events. This method, though basic, has already proven accurate in Mozambique and Tanzania and is expected to perform similarly in Ghana as more data becomes available.
Climate, Water, and Health in Ghana
Ghana’s Volta River basin is home to another critical project: SPRINGS, a multidisciplinary effort linking climate science to public health. At the project’s annual meeting near Akosombo, researchers focused on how future rainfall will affect waterborne disease outbreaks, particularly diarrheal illnesses linked to contaminated water.
Heavy rainfall can wash human and animal waste from open fields into rivers and streams, especially where sanitation infrastructure is limited. To better understand these risks, researchers are combining rainfall models with hydrological simulations that assess water quality and pathogen spread.
Site visits, including one to a local water pumping station, highlighted the reality that treated water doesn’t always meet community demand. In such cases, residents often resort to collecting water directly from the Volta River—raising the risk of exposure to waterborne diseases during the rainy season.
Using simplified rainfall estimates, SPRINGS aims to provide governments and public health agencies with the information they need to design effective water treatment strategies and health interventions. But beyond models and data, the project emphasizes co-production of knowledge—a process where scientists and local stakeholders work hand-in-hand to ensure that research leads to real-world solutions.
From Local Knowledge to Global Impact
The climate challenges facing Mozambique and Ghana are not isolated. Similar patterns of extreme weather, disrupted ecosystems, and public health crises are emerging in Europe, North America, and across the globe. Yet, what stands out in these African case studies is the proactive, community-based approach to adaptation.
The media in Ghana, for instance, has begun to cover climate change more frequently, helping raise awareness among citizens and policymakers alike. As the global conversation around climate change intensifies, these localized efforts can serve as models for other regions.
We Know What Needs to Be Done
One of the most important messages to emerge from these initiatives is this: we already have the scientific knowledge necessary to act. Through satellite observations, ground-based instruments, and sophisticated models, we can monitor and predict changes in Earth’s climate with increasing accuracy. Organizations like Copernicus Climate Change Services (C3S) offer open access to climate data for researchers around the world.
We also know the root of the problem: rising levels of greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide and methane. Mitigating climate change will require reducing emissions, protecting forests, and shifting to sustainable energy systems. But while mitigation remains essential, the reality of today’s climate means adaptation can’t wait.
Looking Ahead
The climate crisis is no longer a distant threat—it’s a present challenge affecting water supplies, health systems, agriculture, and migration patterns. The work being done in Mozambique and Ghana is a testament to the power of international collaboration, science-based decision-making, and community engagement.
As we move forward, building resilience will require more than just technical tools. It will demand inclusive approaches that connect research to real lives. It will require investment in education, infrastructure, and local leadership. And above all, it will depend on a shared recognition that climate change is not just an environmental issue, but a human one.
The road ahead is uncertain, but the will to act—on the ground, across borders, and in partnership—is already taking shape.
